The latest IPCC report makes it clear that we have almost run out of time to act on climate change
Credit - Jeniffer Araujo/Unsplash
The third volume of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2022 report was published at the start of April, a 40-hour delay after the due date.
This report version focuses on the path forward detailing:
how governments can rally to drastically cut emissions;
the solutions that must be rapidly implemented;
and the narrow global pathway to limiting climate damage, for current and future generations.
While several proposals had been announced by the Government (or mentioned in the media) before budget night, there was a big government spend allocated in education, aged care and childcare; and
Most likely there’ll be more measures announced during the election campaign as the budget papers mention a spend of $2.4 billion for this year and next year for “decisions taken but not yet announced."
And less funds to be allocated to addressing climate change.
Approving the Report
IPCC's 195 member countries can't change the science, but they must approve the report and therefore all have a say in how it is framed. As a result, the final text informs policy making and sets the backdrop for negotiations on climate change for several years to come in all the countries involved.
While the previous two reports focused on the physics of climate change and its impacts, this third one took a detailed look at climate mitigation.
Mitigation means what the world can do in order to stop temperatures rising above certain levels, preventing some of the worst consequences of climate change.
What does the Report indicate?
The report details multiple socio-economic paths giving the most attention to measures that will help prevent more than 1.5°C or 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
The report concludes that to have a 50% chance of meeting either goal, 1.5°C or 2°C:
By 2025, global greenhouse-gas emissions will need to peak, and halve by 2030;
A massive and rapid phaseout of fossil fuels is necessary at scale, avoiding the worst of climate change means abandoning plans for further fossil fuel expansion;
Pursuing 1.5°C will require coal use to drop by 95%, oil by 60% and gas by 45% by 2050.
In spite of that daunting tasks ahead - and they are - the IPCC is also careful to note that the last decade has seen a massive reduction in the cost of many technologies at the core of decarbonisation, most notably solar and wind energy. We have virtually all the solutions we need: we just need to roll them out faster.
Where does Australia stand in all of this?
No developed country has more to lose from climate change-fueled extreme weather than Australia, but it also stands to gain a great deal as the world transitions to a zero-carbon economy.
The sun and wind in Australia are abundant enough for the country to be a world leader in renewable energy as well as in industries such as green manufacturing, minerals processing and renewable hydrogen. With a just transition, generations of Australians could become employed in these clean industries, reducing Australia's emissions and helping our neighbouring countries to do so as well.
It is positive news that the IPCC's most recent findings confirm that the Paris goals are reachable. Progress is being made to reduce emissions and tackle climate change, but it’s not nearly enough, and Australia is one of the world’s biggest climate handbrakes. The cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of action, and the decisions we make today will determine our long-term future. Time is running out.
References
2022, A new IPCC report says the window to meet UN climate targets is vanishing, The Economist
2022, What’s the Latest IPCC Report About?, The Climate Council
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